Local elections 2022: YouGov says Labour ‘good chance’ in Wandsworth - Barnet & Westminster too close to call

The Conservatives’ flagship council of Wandsworth is likely to be taken by Labour in today’s local elections, pollster YouGov has predicted.

And Westminster and Barnet - which have both never been controlled by Labour in their history - have been classified as “too close to call”.

YouGov polled voters in 16 key English battleground councils ahead of today’s elections, which see all 32 London boroughs go to the polls.

Of these, five were in London: Hillingdon, Barnet, Westminster, Wandsworth and Croydon.

The pollsters have predicted Labour will further cement their control of Croydon Council, despite the local authority effectively declaring itself bankrupt in 2020.

While in the west London borough of Hillingdon, YouGov forecasts that a Labour surge will not be enough to unseat the Conservatives.

However it has declared Wandsworth as “leaning Labour” and Westminster and Barnet as “too close to call”.

YouGov associate director Patrick English said: “Labour are defending a very strong set of local election results in London, with Jeremy Corbyn leading his party to 44% of the vote and over 1,100 councillors last time round.

“But despite this high baseline, our data suggests that Labour will improve further still in the capital.

“Not only are they likely to keep hold of and increase their presence on Croydon council, but Labour have a good chance of taking Wandsworth – once described as a ‘flagship’ Conservative council.

“Elsewhere in London, their progress will bring them within striking distance of taking both Barnet and Westminster councils, but the result there is too close to call.

“Meanwhile, Hillingdon is likely to remain under Conservative control, despite Labour advances.”

YouGov polled 1,827 adults in each of the battleground boroughs.

Labour sources in Barnet previously told LondonWorld that they were feeling quietly confident about taking the north London borough.

The party had difficulty attracting voters from the large Jewish community under Jeremy Corbyn.

While Putney, in Wandsworth, was the only seat which Labour gained from the Conservatives at the 2019 general election.

Britain Elects has already modelled that both boroughs will go Labour, however the forecaster predicted that the party would fall short in Westminster.

Pollster Ben Walker told the New Statesman podcast: “In London, we expect them [Labour] to do rather well, probably picking up Wandsworth, probably picking up Barnet.

“We think they’ll fall short definitely in Westminster.

“Westminster is a hard nut to crack, basically there is a lot of Labour votes there but they’re spread in the wrong places.

“They’re not in the wards that matter, they’re not in the marginals so to speak.”

Follow all the latest election updates as the results come in overnight and tomorrow on LondonWorld’s live blog.