Autumn Statement 2023 live: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announces national insurance cut - latest updates

Sir Keir Starmer starts by asking about the NHS. Referring to Sunak's speech on Monday, when he made five more promises - Starmer asks why he ignored the NHS? The Labour leader adds "hopefully he has more success with these than the last ones".

Sunak says the government is investing record levels in the NHS. He also says he's hit three of his original targets - halving inflation, growing the economy (just) and reducing debt (only just).

Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt have arrived in the House of Commons to cheers from the Tory benches.

Sunak opens PMQs by saying he "welcomes the agreement reached overnight for a humanitarian pause in Gaza". Israel and Hamas have agreed a four-day ceasefire to allow for the return of some hostages.

Rishi Sunak will face Sir Keir Starmer in Prime Minister's Questions at 12noon, before Jeremy Hunt makes the Autumn Statement at 12.30pm.

Rishi Sunak has just arrived in Parliament ahead of PMQs and the Autumn Statement. He just walked past me in Portcullis House heading towards the House of Commons.

He'd just chaired a meeting of Cabinet. Downing Street has sent me a readout of the meeting. Here is the section on the Autumn Statement:

The Prime Minister turned to the Autumn Statement. He reminded Cabinet of previous economic predictions that the UK economy would fall into a recession, saying that the difficult spending decisions taken by the Chancellor and the success in halving inflation had bucked those predictions and restored stability.

He said that as a result, the UK’s economic policy could change gear with a focus on reducing debt, cutting tax and rewarding hard work, building domestic, sustainable energy, backing British business and delivering world-class education. 

The Chancellor said that his statement was one that backs business and rewards workers to get Britain growing. He particularly pointed to tackling the problem of 100,000 people being signed onto benefits with no requirements to look for work because of sickness or disability, saying that it is a waste of potential that is both economically and morally wrong and that the Back to Work plan would support over a million people to find work. 

The Prime Minister concluded Cabinet by saying it was no accident that stability had been restored to the economy and that inflation had halved, it was the result of actions taken by the Government. He said the Government would now turn its focus to the long-term decisions needed to grow the economy further and build a brighter future – with the Autumn Statement delivering on that change.

One of the other main points of contention ahead of the Autumn Statement has been around the uprating of benefits. Traditionally, benefits are increased at the start of the financial year (April) based on the inflation figures from the previous September - which would be 6.7%. However, Hunt is reportedly looking to free up cash by uprating benefits by October's figure of 4.6% - which is roughly a third lower.

Given the PM and Chancellor want to make the Autumn Statement about helping hard-working families, this would be a controversial call - especially if the state pension is increased by the September figure, as per the triple lock. ITV has also reported that Hunt may finally unfreeze local housing allowance, which charities say has caused homelessness across the country. This would be a huge about turn from Suella Braverman's comments that rough sleeping is a "life-style choice".

The Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves will speak after Jeremy Hunt, however she's given us a flavour of what she'll say in advance. She said: "After 13 years of economic failure under the Conservatives, working people are worse off. Prices are still rising in the shops, energy bills are up and mortgage payments are higher after the Conservatives crashed the economy.

“The 25 Tory tax rises since 2019 are the clearest sign of economic failure, with households paying £4,000 more in tax each year than they did in 2010. The Conservatives have become the party of high tax because they are the party of low growth. Nothing the Chancellor says or does in his Autumn Statement can change their appalling record.

“Under Keir Starmer’s leadership, the Labour Party has changed. Labour is now the party of fiscal responsibility, we are the party of business and we are the only party with a plan to make working people better off.”

The government has raised an additional £27billion in income tax over the past year, in what has been described as a stealth tax rise. This happened because in the spring, Jeremy Hunt announced he was freezing the tax bands in England, Wales and Northern Ireland until 2028.

Given wages have been rapidly increasing (albeit well below the rate of inflation), keeping the thresholds where they are means more people are likely to fall into higher bands between now and 2028. It also means the personal allowance is set to become much less generous.

At the time, Hunt described the move as a freeze, but this obscures the fact that it is technically a tax hike. It is why some have called it a stealth tax rise. HM Revenue & Customs figures show that this has netted the government £27.4 billion over the last year.

Separate figures from HMRC show that by 2024, there will be an additional 32% of workers paying the 40% tax rate, compared with in 2019 - illustrating exactly how the freeze is bringing in more revenue. You can read about this in more detail here.

The government has raised an additional £27billion in income tax over the past year, in what has been described as a stealth tax rise. This happened because in the spring, Jeremy Hunt announced he was freezing the tax bands in England, Wales and Northern Ireland until 2028.

Given wages have been rapidly increasing (albeit well below the rate of inflation), keeping the thresholds where they are means more people are likely to fall into higher bands between now and 2028. It also means the personal allowance is set to become much less generous.

At the time, Hunt described the move as a freeze, but this obscures the fact that it is technically a tax hike. It is why some have called it a stealth tax rise. HM Revenue & Customs figures show that this has netted the government £27.4 billion over the last year.

Separate figures from HMRC show that by 2024, there will be an additional 32% of workers paying the 40% tax rate, compared with in 2019 - illustrating exactly how the freeze is bringing in more revenue. You can read about this in more detail here.

Rishi Sunak said on Monday (20 November) that the government had decided to “cut tax and reward hard work” - which hints that either income tax or national insurance could potentially be reduced.

In June, Sunak said he wanted to reduce income tax rates by 2p in the pound before the next election, however NationalWorld predicted earlier in the week that Hunt would instead cut national insurance. And judging by the briefing over the last few days, it looks like Hunt is set to cut national insurance by around 1% - which will affect around 28 million people.

The other big talking point ahead of the Autumn Statement has been inheritance tax. Only about 4% of deaths in 2020-21 resulted in inheritance tax being paid, with exemptions allowing many couples to pass on up to £1 million tax-free, however it has become a totemic issue for the Tory right. Reports earlier this month stated a cut was being considered, however it now looks like this may get pushed back to the Spring Budget

Council tax, the tax the most people want to see cut according to polling, could be raised by up to 5%, the Telegraph reports. While the government has reportedly ruled out cutting stamp duty as it could be inflationary.

Both Sunak and Hunt have hinted there are likely to be tax cuts in the Autumn Statement. The pair are under intense pressure from the right of the Conservative Party to cut taxes, with the current tax burden at its highest level for 75 years. Worryingly for the Prime Minister, a poll by Survation found that more voters associate the Conservatives as the party of high tax rather than Labour.

Last week, Sunak hit his own self-imposed target of halving inflation in some rare economic good news for the country. Hunt has been cautious so far as Chancellor and much of his time has been spent seeking to undo the economic chaos caused by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, however he hinted at tax cuts for businesses on Sunday (19 November).

He said he wants to “bring down our tax burden” as he presented a positive tone after a year of urging restraint while battling to halve the rate of inflation. “I think it’s important for a productive, dynamic, fizzing economy that you motivate people to do the work, to take the risks that we need,” he told Sky’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.

He did not rule out any specific changes, including most controversially to inheritance tax, saying “everything is on the table in an autumn statement”, and he stressed that “lower tax is essential to economic growth”. With the party flagging in the polls and growth - one of Sunak's five pledges at the start of the year - flatlining, the Chancellor will be desperate for some sort of pre-election giveaway.