Sadiq Khan favourite to win London mayoral election 2024, as majority back his tenure so-far in new poll

A year out from the mayoral election, a recent poll has suggested Sadiq Khan is likely to fend off the competition when Londoners cast their votes next May.

Run by the global consulting firm Redfield and Wilton Strategies, the poll put Mr Khan on 41% of the vote, eight points ahead of a generic Conservative candidate on 33%, and far beyond an unnamed Liberal Democrat candidate (8%), the Green Party’s Zoë Garbett (7%), Reform UK’s Howard Cox (5%), and a vaguely-titled ‘another candidate’, on 5%.

The poll further suggests that Mr Khan not only largely retains the support of those who gave him their first preference vote in 2021 (67%), but also that Londoners at-large are favourable towards him, with 53% approving of his performance so-far, and 55% saying they believe he has made a ‘significant’ or ‘fair’ amount of progress towards achieving campaign promises.

Overall, a slim majority (51%) believe he has been a good Mayor of London, with 23% saying he has been a bad mayor.

Redfield and Wilton Strategies also looked at whether the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn entering the contest would affect the results, though their research suggested Mr Khan is still expected to lead a Conservative candidate, if by a smaller margin of four points.

Perhaps reflecting why the turnout of the elections for London Mayor are often quite low, the poll found that the majority of people (57%) believe the Prime Minister has more control over policies affecting London than the Mayor, against 33% thinking the reverse.

As it stands, all parties bar the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have announced their candidates, with the process for both still ongoing.

The Tory race recently shocked many observers when announcing its three-person shortlist, with one of the favourites, Minister for London Paul Scully, not chosen.

A London Labour source branded the party’s shortlisting process a “circus”, as former City Hall Conservatives leader and current Assembly Member Susan Hall, tech entrepreneur Daniel Korski and Kings Counsel barrister Mozammel Hossain were named.