What result do Spurs need to qualify for Champions League knockout stage? Potential outcomes explained

One of the tightest and most evenly contested UEFA Champions League group’s in recent memory comes to a thrilling culmination on Tuesday night.

Tottenham Hotspur head to France to take on Marseille while Sporting are hosting Europa League holders Eintracht Frankfurt in Lisbon. None of the four teams in Group D have managed to properly get their noses out in front over the last five rounds of matches and none have fallen adrift at the opposite end. That means it’s still all to play for for every team involved in the group whether it’s a place in the Last 16, dropping into the Europa League or elimination from all continental competitions for the rest of the season.

What result do Spurs need to qualify for Champions League knockout stage?

It’s very simple actually, a win at the Stade Vélodrome on Tuesday night guarantees that Spurs qualify for the Last 16 of the Champions League as group winners - meaning they will be seeded. Meanwhile, a draw would also be enough to book their passage into the knockout stages although they would risk losing out on top spot if either Sporting or Frankfurt win the match in Lisbon. Ahead of the final round, the table looks like this:

1. Tottenham - 8pts (W 2, D 2, L 1, GF 6, GA 5)
2. Sporting - 7pts (W 2, D 2, L 2, GF 7, GA 7)
3. E. Frankfurt - 7pts (W 2, D 2, L 2, GF 5, GA 7)
4. Marseille - 6 pts (W2, D 0, L 3, GF 6, GA 6)

So, If Spurs were to draw and either Sporting or Frankfurt win their match then they would top the group with ten points and Antonio Conte’s side would be second with nine points. The situation if the North London club were to lose in France is slightly more complicated although it would guarantee, at the very least, that they did not top the group as Marseille would jump above them.

What happens if Marseille beat Spurs? Goal difference and head-to-head explained

It’s important to remember that placings in the Champions League group stages are decided on head-to-head results first and then overall goal difference second. If two teams finish level on points then the team who picked up the most points in their two matches against each other finishes above followed by goal difference and then by goals scored and then finally by away goals scored over the two matches. After all that, it is then decided by the traditional overall group goal difference and so on.

Therefore, if Marseille were to beat Spurs and either Frankfurt or Sporting wins in Lisbon, Tottenham would finish third in the group and drop into the knockout round of the Europa League. If they lose in France and the other two teams draw their match then it becomes complicated. All three teams would have eight points but Sporting won 3-0 in Frankfurt in the opening round so would guarantee to finish above the Germans if they draw.

What about Spurs though? Well, they lost 2-0 to Sporting in Lisbon and drew 1-1 in London so the Portuguese side would finish ahead of them, meaning they would be out of the Champions League. Antonio Conte’s side drew with Frankfurt in Germany and beat them at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium so would therefore finish the group in third.

Possible outcomes for Spurs

Here are all the possible outcomes from tonight’s Group D matches and what they mean for Spurs:

• Spurs win - finish group in top spot and advance to Last 16 with seeding
• Spurs draw and Frankfurt/Sporting draw - finish group in top spot and advance to Last 16 with seeding
• Spurs draw and Frankfurt or Sporting win - Frankfurt or Sporting top group and Spurs qualify in second place (unseeded for Last 16 draw)
• Spurs lose and Frankfurt/Sporting draw - Marseille top group, Sporting are second and Spurs (third) drop into Europa League
• Spurs lose and Frankfurt or Sporting win - winner of Frankfurt/Sporting tops group, Marseille are second and Spurs (third) drop into Europa League