Champions League race: Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa latest predicted finish after fresh twist

Chelsea secured a huge boost on Sunday in their bid to secure Champions League football for next season. The Blues scored twice late on against Fulham to come from behind, Tyrique George sparking the comeback and Pedro Neto scoring a superb winner in stoppage time.

Enzo Maresca’s men had been on a torrid run of form, and it looked as though it would continue against a Fulham side with a European agenda of their own. But the win feels like a potential turning point for Chelsea as they prepare for a tough-looking run-in, still in the midst of one of the tightest Champions League races in recent times, even with fifth place also a Champions League spot.

As things stand, Newcastle United are in third with 59 points, but their heavy defeat to Aston Villa means the race has condensed further, with Manchester City in fourth with 48 points, Chelsea in fifth with 47, and Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa also have 47 points with a worse goal difference, although Forest don’t play until Monday night, facing Tottenham.

The battle for the three Champions League spots will surely go down to the wire, with plenty of twists and turns remaining in the last five rounds of fixtures, but who is on course to come out on top in the latest predicted table?

Predicted final Premier League table

According to OPTA’s model, Chelsea’s win over Fulham will not be enough to spark a run to the Champions League. In fact, the model has the Blues finishing as low as seventh, which would be a Europa League spot. The prediction has Chelsea finishing on 64 points, although their chances of reaching 64 points are said to be less than those of Aston Villa, who are also predicted to have the same total.

Crucially, Forest are said to be most likely to finish in fifth with 66 points, with Newcastle United above them with 67 points. Manchester City are said to be most likely to finish in third place with 68 points.

The remaining fixtures

Here are the remaining fixtures for the five teams battling for those all-important three Champions League spots.

Chelsea: Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Man Utd (H), Nottingham Forest (A).

Nottingham Forest: Tottenham (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Chelsea (H).

Man City: Aston Villa (H), Wolves (H) Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A).

Newcastle United: Ipswich Town (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal, (A) Everton (H).

Aston Villa: Man City (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), Man Utd (A).

Maresca’s view

Chelsea boss Maresca believes his side have had a strong season regardless of their Champions League fate. He said after the win over Fulham: “Personally, the goal from Pedro (Neto) doesn't change my view of the season. I said three or four days ago, and I will repeat, Chelsea in the last two years have never been in the Champions League spots and this season we spent all season there.

"So today's win doesn't change my view. It's already a good season and can become very good if we finish in the Champions League spots, no doubt. But for sure, today was an important win because first of all it's a derby, second, it gives us the chance to be there. And probably it was the most difficult win, and the reason why is because they (league rivals) all played yesterday."

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