Championship relegation battle predicted as Derby County win leaves QPR, Cardiff City and others nervous

QPR are in the midst of a pivotal week in their season having dropped down the table over recent weeks. The Hoops looked earlier in the season as though they had put a poor start behind them, moving up to mid-table alongside London rivals Millwall.

But the second half of the winter has not been kind to Marti Cifuentes’ men, and they are now six without a win and down in 15th place, just five points above the relegation zone. In a normal Championship season, 45 points would put any given club on the brink of securing safety, but this season is very different.

With only a five-point gap between 22nd and 15th, and only a seven-point gap between 23rd and 15th, as many as nine teams are involved in the relegation battle, with bottom club Plymouth Argyle likely a little too far adrift, currently seven points from safety.

Derby County’s win over Preston North End on Wednesday night - their game in-hand - put the cat among the pigeons, with the Rams moving out of the relegation zone and above Cardiff by one point as a result. But it’s bad news for QPR.

If Cifuentes’ men lose to Cardiff this weekend and Derby also win, the Hoops would be only two points ahead of Cardiff and Derby would be within one point of them. That would put QPR in the thick of the relegation battle, with only six games remaining after this weekend.

Predicted final Championship table

Stat experts Opta run various calculations to work out the most likely final Championship table, and according to their calculations, QPR are currently on course to beat the drop, likely to rack up 53 points. That would be enough to get them 17th place, so they would drop another two places before all is said and done.

According to the model, the current bottom three will be relegated, with Luton Town likely to end up on 46 points, while Cardiff would go down with 47, though it is a very close race. The Bluebirds are expected to pick up just one less point than Derby, so even one unexpected result could change things significantly, and if there is one thing we know about the Championship, it’s that there are plenty of unexpected twists in the final games of the season, especially involving teams who are desperately scrapping to stay up.

As far as QPR are concerned, the useful information is that they will only likely need three or four more points to beat the drop, though they will want six points as a minimum to make sure, given that will take them beyond the magic 50-point total. Last season, Plymouth needed 51 points to beat the drop, with Birmingham City going down despite reaching 50 points.

Cifuentes on QPR’s run-in

QPR boss Cifuentes said before his side’s defeat to Stoke City over the weekend: “We have six weeks in front of us with eight games, and we need to make sure that we improve the last performances, the last results, because the reality is that the main target has not been achieved yet and I think that it would be naïve to expect this is going to be an easy end of the season. We need to be very competitive, we need to get back on track in terms of getting three points as soon as possible.”