Pre-season predicted table was wrong about Millwall and QPR - and very wrong about Sunderland

The Championship season is all wrapped up following the play-off final on Saturday. Sunderland secured a late comeback against Sheffield United to win 2-1, scoring deep into stoppage time to secure their Premier League return.

For the London sides, it was a strong season, with Millwall making an unexpected run for a play-off spot, only missing out by a whisker, while QPR secured safety pretty comfortably. We can also look forward to Charlton Athletic playing in the second tier next season after they won promotion from League One over the weekend.

But as for this season’s Championship season, how were the two London sides expected to perform? Looking back at leading data specialists Opta’s predicted table from before a ball was kicked, we can see as many as six of the final Championship positions were spot on, but they were not right about the where Millwall and QPR would finish. QPR were expected to perform a little worse than they actually did, while Millwall were not expected to be anywhere near the playoffs, but until three quarters of the way through the season, that seemed like it might be a safe prediction.

Here we take a look at the pre-season prediction and compare it to the real life positions. The position difference is based on real position so, for example, if a team was predicted to finish first but ended up second, they would get a minus one in that column, while the same applies to the ‘real points difference’, so if a team finished with three more points than expected, they would score a plus in that column.

Pre-season OPTA Championship predicted table

1st: Leeds United – 81.6

(Position difference: 0 // Real points difference: +18.4)

2nd: Middlesbrough – 73.9

(Position difference: -8 // Real points difference: -9.9)

3rd: Burnley – 71.4

(Position difference: +1 // Real points difference: +28.6)

4th: West Bromwich Albion – 71.1

(Position difference: -5 // Real points difference: -7.1)

5th: Luton Town – 70.9

(Position difference: -17 // Real points difference: -21.9)

6th: Norwich City – 69.9

(Position difference: -7 // Real points difference: -12.9)

7th: Coventry City – 67.4

(Position difference: +2 // Real points difference: +1.6)

8th: Hull City – 66.4

(Position difference: -13 // Real points difference: -17.4)

9th: Sheffield United – 65.3

(Position difference: +6 // Real points difference: +24.7)

10th: Bristol City – 63.9

(Position difference: +4 // Real points difference: +4)

11th: Swansea City – 62.6

(Position difference: 0 // Real points difference: -1.6)

12th: Sheffield Wednesday – 61.6

(Position difference: 0// Real points difference: -3.6)

13th: Stoke City – 60.6

(Position difference: -5 // Real points difference: -9.6)

14th: Millwall – 59.8

(Position difference: +6 // Real points difference: +6.2)

15th: Watford – 59.6

(Position difference: -1 // Real points difference: -2.6)

16th: Blackburn Rovers – 59.1

(Position difference: +9 // Real points difference: +6.9)

17th: Portsmouth – 58.6

(Position difference: +1 // Real points difference: -4.6)

18th: Preston North End – 58.2

(Position difference: -2 // Real points difference: -8.2)

19th: Derby County – 58.1

(Position difference: 0 // Real points difference: -8.1)

20th: Queens Park Rangers – 57.5

(Position difference: +5 // Real points difference: -1.5)

21st: Sunderland – 56.2

(Position difference: +18 // Real points difference: +19.8)

22nd: Oxford United – 55.5

(Position difference: +5 // Real points difference: -2.5)

23rd: Plymouth Argyle – 53.7

(Position difference: 0 // Real points difference: -7.7)

24th: Cardiff City – 50.6

(Position difference: 0 // Real points difference: -6.6)

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