Chelsea top four bid: Predicted final table and run-in compared to Liverpool, Aston Villa and Man Utd
A look at Chelsea’s top four prospects as they look to sneak into the Champions League spots.
Chelsea continue to slip and falter in the top four race, with Liam Rosenior struggling to keep his side in consistent form. A lack of consistency plagued Enzo Maresca during his reign this season, and it looks as though the trend will continue, potentially costing the Blues a Champions League season.


Defeat to Newcastle United was the latest blow, but Chelsea were lucky enough to see Liverpool draw and Aston Villa lose, so the damage has been limited. But what do the results mean for Chelsea’s top four prospects? Here we take a look at the predicted table and the run-ins of each of the hopefuls.
Current Premier League table
Here is how the Premier League table currently looks
3rd - Man Utd - 54pts // 13GD
4th - Aston Villa - 51pts // 3GD
5th - Liverpool - 49pts // 9GD
6th - Chelsea - 48pts // 18GD
7th - Brentford - 44pts // 4GD
Predicted final table
Here is the predicted final Premier League table from OPTA, who use many simulations to put together the most likely final standings.
3rd - Man Utd- 66.30pts // UCL probability - 80.59%
4th - Aston Villa - 64.05pts // UCL probability - 56.49%
5th - Liverpool - 61.69pts // UCL probability - 33.29%
6th - Chelsea - 60.45pts // UCL probability - 23.15%
7th - Brentford - 57.33pts // UCL probability - 5.18%
Note: ‘UCL probability’ factors in the probability of the Premier League gaining an additional qualification place, which would make fifth place an automatic Champions League spot. England would have to be among the two best-performing nations in European competitions this season to secure that additional place.
Run-ins compared
Man Utd
AFC Bournemouth (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Brentford (H), Liverpool (H), Sunderland (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Brighton (A).
Aston Villa
West Ham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Sunderland (H), Fulham (A), Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), Liverpool (H), Man City (A).
Liverpool
Brighton (A), Fulham (H), Everton (A), Crystal Palace (H), Man Utd (A), Chelsea (H), Aston Villa (A), Brentford (H).
Chelsea
Everton (A), Man City (H), Man Utd (H), Brighton (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Liverpool (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (A).
Brentford
Wolves (H), Leeds (A), Everton (H), Fulham (H), Man Utd (A), West Ham (H), Man City (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A).
