How many points Arsenal need to win Premier League title ahead of Man City and Aston Villa - according to Opta

Premier League leaders Arsenal are looking to win the league title for the first time in 22 years and are just 13 games away from achieving that feat under Mikel Arteta.

The last time the Gunners were crowned champions of England was back in the Invincibles season of 2003/04, with a trio of second-placed finishes in the last three seasons demonstrating just how close Arteta’s side have come.

This term, they have led the division since the early months of the season and have shown little sign of slowing up – though Manchester City are beginning to breathe down their necks, as quoted by Pep Guardiola last weekend.

Arsenal travel to Brentford on Thursday night and will look to reinstate a six-point lead at the top of the table – but how many more points will they need to be crowned champions? We had a look at Opta’s latest predictions.

How many points will Arsenal need to win the title?

According to the latest supercomputer released by Opta, Arsenal are predicted to finish the season as Premier League champions with 82.78 points.

That is touted to see the Gunners win the title by a margin of eight points, with Man City predicted to finish second on 74.58 points and Aston Villa three points further behind them. By these calculations, therefore, Arsenal are expected to pick up 26.78 more points in their final 13 games – an average of just over 2 points per game – with as little as 18.58 points in their remaining fixtures potentially enough to see them finish above City. As of right now, Opta give Arsenal an 87.64% chance of winning the title, with City having just 10.56% chance and Aston Villa 1.75%.

A total of 82.78 points would see Arsenal become champions with the lowest points total in a decade, since Leicester City won the title with 81 points in 2015/16 in one of the greatest sporting upsets of all time. The lowest title-winning points total in Premier League history is the 75 earnt by Manchester United in 1996/97, while Arsenal themselves earnt just 78 when winning the league the following season in 1997/98.

All in all, across the Premier League era, an average of 87.66 points has been required to be crowned champions. That would need Arsenal to pick up an additional 31.66 points in their final 13 games, an average of 2.4 points per game – which might appear a tall order at present, but may become reality if City continue to put on the pressure.