Arsenal title bid: Predicted final table and how their run-in compares to Man City
A look at the title race to see where Arsenal and Manchester City stand after the weekend’s action.
Arsenal further strengthened their grip on the Premier League title across the weekend, with Max Dowman the hero as they beat Everton at home with two late goals. Manchester City followed that by drawing against survival hopefuls West Ham, and the gap is now nine points.
Arsenal have played a game more, and they do still have to play City, but it’s clear Pep Guardiola’s men are running out of time to make their move, with only eight games remaining for them and one less for the Gunners.
Mikel Arteta’s men know they only have to take care of their own business from here, and they are currently doing just that. Here we round up the latest on the title race, including a look at the run-ins and the predicted final table.
The current table
Here is the current Premier League table, as of Monday, March 16.
1st - Arsenal - 70pts // 39GD (Played one more game)
2nd - Man City - 61pts // 32GD
Predicted final Premier League table
The Opta predicted Premier League table, which uses many simulations to produce an average final table, looks like this:
1st - Arsenal - 84.64pts // Title-winning probability: 97.42%
2nd - Man City - 74.70pts // Title-winning probability: 2.58%
Run-ins compared
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth (H), Man City (A), Newcastle United (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A).
Man City
Crystal Palace (H - Date TBC), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A), Everton (A), Brentford (H), AFC Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H).
Arsenal’s run-in analysed
The equation required for Arsenal to end their title drought is getting shorter and shorter. If the Gunners win their next two games, they need not worry about the rest, given they will be 12 points clear, which will become nine if City win their game in hand, with only five games remaining.
That would require City to win all five and for Arsenal to lose at least three. It’s not going to happen. A defeat to City could make things a little more difficult, although it would still require the Gunners to fall apart down the stretch.
Realistically, Arsenal only need to win five - at best - of these games to cross the line, and you look at the last three as very likely wins between West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace. A couple of wins between the Bournemouth, Newcastle and Fulham games are also likely, even if we take out the City game, and it’s just getting difficult to see how Arsenal can make a mess of this given the position they are now in.