Boris Johnson on course to lose Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat at next general election, pollster finds

The Britain Elects election calculator, by the New Statesman, has predicted that the prime minister would lose his west London seat if an election was held today.

The prime minister Boris Johnson is on course to lose his west London seat at the next general election, an electoral calculator has predicted.

If this shock defeat happened, the Conservative leader would become only the second sitting prime minister to lose their seat in British history.

The Britain Elects election model, which is published on the New Statesman’s website, has predicted that Labour would take Mr Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency if an election was held today.

Britain Predicts turns poll shares into predicted seats in the House of Commons.

The Britain Predicts model for Boris Johnson’s constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Credit: Britain Elects/New Statesman

The New Statesman says: “Regularly reviewed and updated, the model is one of the more advanced daily predictors of a general election result.”

It found that if the election was held today - with Mr Johnson’s premiership in turmoil - Labour would unseat him in west London.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party is predicted to get 43.7% in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, an increase of 6.1% on 2019.

While the prime minister’s vote share would drop by 11.5%, giving him just 41.1% of the vote.

The model found that on the current polls, Labour would be largest party with 306 MPs with the Tories dropping to 245 MPs.

The Britain Predicts map of London, if the election was held today. Credit: Britain Elects/News Statesman

And Britain Predicts says that the Tories will take a battering in the capital, losing seven seats to Labour, including Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Woodford Green, and three to the Lib Dems.

Mr Johnson’s premiership is looking close to collapse with a raft of ministerial resignations over the Chris Pincher affair, including the chancellor Rishi Sunak and health secretary Sajid Javid.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to lose his seat at the next general election, according to a key poll. Credit: JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images

Mr Pincher resigned as deputy chief whip last week, after complaints were made that he allegedly groped two men while drunk.

The prime minister’s spokesperson initially said he was not aware of a previous misconduct complaint against the Tamworth MP, however yesterday Mr Johnson was forced to admit he had been told about the allegation in 2019.

He was forced to apologise for appointing Mr Pincher as deputy chief whip, saying: “I bitterly regret the decision not to... intervene.”

Mr Sunak and Mr Javid resigned shortly afterwards.